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Between 750 and 1,200 daily cases of COVID-19 under modelling scenarios

The two numbers are based on ‘lower” and “moderate” transmission scenarios.
bonnie henry
Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry

B.C. could be seeing daily COVID-19 case counts of about 1,200 by late September under a "moderate" transmission scenario, according to the latest modelling data released Tuesday afternoon.

The updated modelling data mostly revolves around the impacts of vaccination rates currently seen in the province.

In a "lower" transmission scenario, B.C. will continue to produce between 500 and 750 new cases per day through September — unless vaccinations increase.

Under the "moderate" scenario, and with projected vaccination levels based on recent rates, B.C.'s daily case trajectory will continue to increase, up to about 1,250 cases per day by the end of September.

The data also shows the effects of B.C.'s vaccination campaign.

One slide shows how those unvaccinated are 12 times as likely to become infected, 34 times as likely to be hospitalized and eight times as likely to die from COVID-19, compared to those who have received two doses. The data is adjusted for age differences.

Data also shows cases among unvaccinated populations on a downward trend within Interior Health. Smaller declines are also present in vaccinated and partially vaccinated populations.

Provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry said with elevated case rates, COVID-19 is affecting the quality of health care in some areas, particularly in Interior Health.

"What we're seeing is this has become a pandemic that is spreading rapidly in pockets of people who are unvaccinated," she said.

Henry said there has also been a "gentle" rise in cases in Fraser Health and Vancouver Coastal Health.

Since cases spiked in the province in July, new cases have primarily been in the 20 to 29, 30 to 39 and 40 to 49 age groups, almost entirely in those who are unvaccinated or vaccinated with only one dose.

Across the province, between July 27 and Aug. 23, 70 per cent of all cases were among the unvaccinated, while 16 per cent were among the partially vaccinated and 15 per cent were among the fully vaccinated.

For hospitalizations, 81 per cent were unvaccinated, six per cent were partially vaccinated and 13 per cent were fully vaccinated.

Vaccination rates are lowest among the 12 to 17 and 18 to 29 age groups, which were the last two groups given access to the vaccine.

Henry said the severe cases among children, seen in some U.S. states, are not being seen in B.C., and hospitalization rates in these two groups in B.C. are the lowest among all age groups.

But cases are occurring among these groups. From July 30 to Aug. 26, of 13,654 total cases reported, approximately 1,500 were among those ages 11 and under and about 800 were among those ages 12 to 19.

"The interesting and important thing we all need to think about is that getting people immunized, in all of those groups that are not yet at that 85 to 90 per cent range, can make a tremendous difference in the trajectory of our pandemic over the next month," Henry said.