Modelling data shows B.C. on precipice of a spike in cases — if contact isn't further limited

New modelling data released by the province on Thursday shows that B.C. is on the precipice of a spike in cases if contact is not reduced to less than 60 per cent of normal.

Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry said people in the province are currently in contact with others at around 65 per cent of normal.

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Graphs released by the province show the potential for more than 150 new cases per day by the end of September at contact rates between 60 and 80 per cent.

The data also shows how the recent upward trend in cases is affecting different age groups than the pandemic’s first wave in B.C. in March.

The age groups driving new cases since June have been 20 to 29 and 30 to 39, according to the data.

covid contact data
Modelling data from the province shows how B.C.'s COVID-19 cases may progress at varying levels of contact. Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry says people in the province are currently operating at 65 per cent of normal contact levels.

Henry also said B.C.’s testing capacity is also a factor.

“Even though we have higher numbers of cases, we are finding and testing more people than we were in March who have this illness, so we don’t believe the number of people out there with COVID-19 who aren’t detected is as high as it was when testing was limited,” she said.

B.C. is currently testing between 4,000 and 5,000 people each day.

Thursday’s update brought news of 89 new cases and one death, for a total of 6,041 cases and 210 deaths since the pandemic came to B.C. in late January.

By health authority, there have been 3,155 cases in Fraser Health, 2,012 cases in Vancouver Coastal Health, 450 cases in Interior Health, 178 cases in Island Health, 167 cases in Northern Health and 79 cases among those who reside outside Canada.

There are now 1,175 active cases in B.C., with 34 of those people in hospital, 11 of whom are in critical care.

A total of 4,644 people have recovered from COVID-19 in B.C. and there are another 2,801 being monitored by public health for potential exposure.

Interior Health, meanwhile, says there are currently 21 active cases in the region, with no one in hospital.

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